VfL Osnabrückvs
Bayern München
COMPLETEDGermany · DFB Pokal · 9/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bayern München · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
VfL Osnabrück 1-4 Bayern München
Original prediction
Bayern München
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 43.11 | 2.2% | 22.8% | 20.6 pts |
| Draw | 17.25 | 5.5% | 20.1% | 14.6 pts |
| Away | 1.03 | 92.3% | 57.1% | -35.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-35.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Bayern München
Probability
57.1%
Model confidence
57.1%
Bayern München has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40
GF 16 · GA 6 · avg 3.20/1.20