Germany · DFB Pokal · 10/27/2026, 7:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Borussia Dortmund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.39 | 67.3% | 47.3% | -20.1 pts |
| Draw | 5.09 | 18.4% | 23.7% | 5.4 pts |
| Away | 6.54 | 14.3% | 29.0% | 14.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Borussia Dortmund
Probability
47.3%
Model confidence
47.3%
Borussia Dortmund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Borussia DortmundWWDLD
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Werder BremenWDDLW
GF 10 · GA 15 · avg 2.00/3.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
100.0Attack100.0
100.0Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
97.0Power97.0
2.16xG1.84