1. FC Kölnvs
Union Berlin
COMPLETEDGermany · DFB Pokal · 10/27/2026, 7:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
1. FC Köln · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
1. FC Köln 5-0 Union Berlin
Original prediction
1. FC Köln
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 52.2% | 43.8% | -8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 25.3% | 25.4% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 4.14 | 22.5% | 30.8% | 8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
1. FC Köln
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
1. FC Köln has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60