How Goalvio Predictions Work

Goalvio turns historical team and competition context into probabilities, not guarantees.

Inputs and outputs

• League goal environment, home advantage, team ratings, recent form, scoring, and conceding rates.
• A Poisson score distribution with a Dixon-Coles adjustment for low-scoring outcomes.
• Home-win, draw, away-win, BTTS, over/under, expected-goal, and most-likely score probabilities from that same distribution.

How to read a prediction

A Projected Score appears only when one exact score has at least 15% probability. Otherwise Goalvio shows the three Most Likely Scores with their individual probabilities. The predicted winner remains based on the combined probability of every scoreline for each outcome.

Limitations

Predictions can change as fixture data updates and may not include every late injury, lineup, or market movement. Goalvio is for match research and entertainment, not a promise of a result or financial return.