Primera DivisiónPrimera División
Sunday, 26 July 2026Last updated 10:09
FBC Melgar

FBC Melgar

Home
D
21
Full time
Sporting Cristal

Sporting Cristal

Away
W
Estadio de la UNSA
GoalVio prediction
59% confidence
FBC Melgar(59%)
Most likely exact score2-0
Win probability
FBC Melgar
59%
Draw
24%
Sporting Cristal
16%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
FBC Melgar
9
Sporting Cristal
34
Defence
FBC Melgar
91
Sporting Cristal
91
Momentum
FBC Melgar
33
Sporting Cristal
100
Danger (xG)
FBC Melgar
0.00
Sporting Cristal
0.00
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (FBC Melgar)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Sporting Cristal)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (FBC Melgar)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Sporting Cristal)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
FBC MelgarFBC Melgar
DW
Sporting CristalSporting Cristal
WL

Probability breakdown

59% confidence
FBC Melgar59%
Draw24%
Sporting Cristal16%

FBC Melgar leads with 59% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

FBC Melgar head into this in Primera División fixture at Estadio de la UNSA in mixed form (D), while Sporting Cristal arrive in mixed form (W). FBC Melgar have a 0% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 100% for Sporting Cristal over 1 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — FBC Melgar (91/100) and Sporting Cristal (91/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

FBC Melgar have won 1 of their last 2 home fixtures, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game at home. Sporting Cristal have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 1 away matches. They average 1.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per away game.

Sporting Cristal have generated 0.00 xG per game recently while conceding 0.00 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches.

There is no head-to-head data between FBC Melgar and Sporting Cristal in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects FBC Melgar to win with 59% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-0. Win probabilities: FBC Melgar 5933%, Draw 2423%, Sporting Cristal 1644%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

FBC Melgar

FBC Melgar

D
vs UCV Moquegua
29 Jun 2026
00
W
vs Sport Huancayo
16 May 2026
10
Sporting Cristal

Sporting Cristal

W
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
17 Jul 2026
10
xG 0.0
L
@ FC Cajamarca
15 May 2026
13

Frequently asked questions

Who will win FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal?

GoalVio's model predicts FBC Melgar to win with 59% confidence.

What is the predicted score for FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-0.

Will both teams score in FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more