Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cienciano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
ADT 2-1 Cienciano
Original prediction
Cienciano
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 40.2% | 29.3% | -10.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.7% | 25.1% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.88 | 32.0% | 45.6% | 13.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Cienciano
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Cienciano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ADTLLWLD
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CiencianoWWLLL
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ADTCienciano
36.0Attack58.7
48.0Defence50.7
29.3Form53.3
39.6Power54.9
1.09xG1.75