Alianza Atleticovs
Comerciantes Unidos
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 9/18/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alianza Atletico · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alianza Atletico 2-1 Comerciantes Unidos
Original prediction
Alianza Atletico
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 56.6% | 49.8% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 24.9% | 25.1% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 4.98 | 18.5% | 25.1% | 6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Alianza Atletico
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
Alianza Atletico has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60