Alianza Atleticovs
Deportivo Garcilaso
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 10/28/2026, 8:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Deportivo Garcilaso · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alianza Atletico 3-2 Deportivo Garcilaso
Original prediction
Deportivo Garcilaso
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 12:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 53.1% | 35.4% | -17.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 25.4% | 26.7% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 4.32 | 21.5% | 38.0% | 16.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Deportivo Garcilaso
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Deportivo Garcilaso has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40