Atletico Grauvs
Alianza Atletico
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 9/13/2026, 8:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alianza Atletico · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Atletico Grau 0-0 Alianza Atletico, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico Grau 3-1 Alianza Atletico
Original prediction
Alianza Atletico
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.24 | 41.2% | 32.3% | -8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 29.2% | 30.8% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.11 | 29.7% | 36.9% | 7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.2 pts
Projected Score
Atletico Grau 0–0 Alianza Atletico
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Alianza Atletico
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
Alianza Atletico has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20