Primera DivisiónPrimera División
Sunday, 26 July 2026Last updated 15:02
Comerciantes Unidos

Comerciantes Unidos

Home
D
22
Full time
Alianza Lima

Alianza Lima

Away
W
Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra
GoalVio prediction
40% confidence
Comerciantes Unidos(40%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Comerciantes Unidos
40%
Draw
31%
Alianza Lima
30%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Comerciantes Unidos
9
Alianza Lima
34
Defence
Comerciantes Unidos
91
Alianza Lima
91
Momentum
Comerciantes Unidos
33
Alianza Lima
100
Danger (xG)
Comerciantes Unidos
0.00
Alianza Lima
0.90
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Comerciantes Unidos)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Alianza Lima)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Comerciantes Unidos)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Alianza Lima)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Comerciantes UnidosComerciantes Unidos
DL
Alianza LimaAlianza Lima
W

Probability breakdown

40% confidence
Comerciantes Unidos40%
Draw31%
Alianza Lima30%

Comerciantes Unidos leads with 40% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Comerciantes Unidos head into this in Primera División fixture at Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra in mixed form (D), while Alianza Lima arrive in mixed form (W). Comerciantes Unidos have a 0% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 100% for Alianza Lima over 1 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — Comerciantes Unidos (91/100) and Alianza Lima (91/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

Comerciantes Unidos have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 1 home games. They average 0.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per home match. Alianza Lima have been excellent on the road, winning all 1 of their recent away fixtures and averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between Comerciantes Unidos and Alianza Lima in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Comerciantes Unidos to win with 40% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Comerciantes Unidos 3957%, Draw 3062%, Alianza Lima 2981%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Comerciantes Unidos

Comerciantes Unidos

D
vs Juan Pablo II College
27 Jun 2026
00
L
@ ADT
17 May 2026
02
Alianza Lima

Alianza Lima

W
@ Cienciano
16 May 2026
10

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima?

GoalVio's model predicts Comerciantes Unidos to win with 40% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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