Primera DivisiónPrimera División
Saturday, 18 July 2026Last updated 12:36
ADT

ADT

Home
W
12
Full time
Universitario

Universitario

Away
LD
Estadio Union Tarma
GoalVio prediction
Too close to call
No clear favourite

The model sees this as an open match — all three outcomes are within a tight range.

ADT36%
Draw35%
Universitario29%
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
ADT
36%
Draw
35%
Universitario
29%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
ADT
94
Universitario
9
Defence
ADT
27
Universitario
82
Momentum
ADT
100
Universitario
17
Danger (xG)
ADT
2.70
Universitario
0.00
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (ADT)
2.70
avg per match
xG for (Universitario)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (ADT)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Universitario)
0.45
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
ADTADT
WW
UniversitarioUniversitario
LD

Probability breakdown

38% confidence
ADT36%
Draw35%
Universitario29%

ADT leads with 36% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

ADT head into this in Primera División fixture at Estadio Union Tarma in mixed form (W), while Universitario arrive in mixed form (LD). ADT have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 0% for Universitario over 2 games.

The model rates ADT's attack at 94/100 against a 82/100 Universitario defence, and Universitario's attack at 9/100 against a 27/100 ADT backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

ADT have won all 1 of their recent home fixtures, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game at home. Universitario have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 1 away matches. They average 0.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between ADT and Universitario in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects ADT to win with 38% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: ADT 3579%, Draw 3500%, Universitario 2921%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

ADT

ADT

W
@ Cienciano
10 Jul 2026
32
W
vs Comerciantes Unidos
17 May 2026
20
Universitario

Universitario

L
vs Atletico Grau
16 May 2026
01
D
@ Sport Boys
12 May 2026
00

Frequently asked questions

Who will win ADT vs Universitario?

GoalVio's model predicts ADT to win with 38% confidence.

What is the predicted score for ADT vs Universitario?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in ADT vs Universitario?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in ADT vs Universitario?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more