Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santa Fe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Llaneros 0-0 Santa Fe, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Llaneros 1-0 Santa Fe
Original prediction
Santa Fe
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.67 | 34.6% | 26.3% | -8.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 30.1% | 29.1% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.61 | 35.3% | 44.6% | 9.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.3 pts
Projected Score
Llaneros 0–0 Santa Fe
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Santa Fe
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Santa Fe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LlanerosLLLLW
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Santa FeDWWDL
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
LlanerosSanta Fe
33.3Attack51.4
61.5Defence65.7
37.5Form54.3
46.2Power58.2
0.71xG1.13