Fortaleza FCvs
Once Caldas
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera A · 9/2/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Once Caldas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fortaleza FC 1-2 Once Caldas
Original prediction
Once Caldas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.23 | 28.8% | 26.2% | -2.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 29.2% | 26.7% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 2.21 | 42.0% | 47.2% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Once Caldas
Probability
47.2%
Model confidence
47.2%
Once Caldas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00