Deportes Tolimavs
Deportivo Pasto
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera A · 10/26/2026, 1:15:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Deportes Tolima · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Deportes Tolima 1-0 Deportivo Pasto, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Deportes Tolima 0-1 Deportivo Pasto
Original prediction
Deportes Tolima
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 07:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.40 | 66.5% | 51.7% | -14.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.29 | 21.7% | 27.1% | 5.4 pts |
| Away | 7.83 | 11.9% | 21.2% | 9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.8 pts
Projected Score
Deportes Tolima 1–0 Deportivo Pasto
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Deportes Tolima
Probability
51.7%
Model confidence
51.7%
Deportes Tolima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 1 · GA 7 · avg 0.20/1.40