Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chorley · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chorley 2-3 Buxton
Original prediction
Chorley
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.84 | 32.1% | 38.3% | 6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.4% | 24.3% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.20 | 41.5% | 37.4% | -4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
Chorley
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Chorley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChorleyLDWWW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
BuxtonDLLLW
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
ChorleyBuxton
53.3Attack60.0
43.3Defence40.0
46.7Form53.3
49.0Power51.2
2.04xG1.88