Italy · Coppa Italia Serie D · 10/28/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caldiero Terme · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 9 October 2026 at 14:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.93 | 30.8% | 37.3% | 6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 26.7% | 28.0% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.12 | 42.6% | 34.7% | -7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Caldiero Terme
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Caldiero Terme has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Caldiero TermeWLWWW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Cjarlins MuzaneWWLDW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Caldiero TermeCjarlins Muzane
66.7Attack66.7
100.0Defence66.7
100.0Form100.0
88.7Power80.3
1.43xG1.15