Italy · Coppa Italia Serie D · 10/28/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Virtus Francavilla · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 9 October 2026 at 14:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.44 | 36.7% | 33.0% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 29.3% | 28.8% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.64 | 34.0% | 38.2% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Virtus Francavilla
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
Virtus Francavilla has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Fidelis AndriaWWWDW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Virtus FrancavillaWLWWL
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Fidelis AndriaVirtus Francavilla
33.3Attack100.0
66.7Defence100.0
33.3Form100.0
45.3Power97.0
1.10xG1.38