Atletico Nacionalvs
Santa Fe
SCHEDULEDColombia · Primera A · 10/30/2026, 1:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico Nacional · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 16 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 61.3% | 48.7% | -12.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.95 | 23.5% | 27.7% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 6.15 | 15.1% | 23.7% | 8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Atletico Nacional
Probability
48.7%
Model confidence
48.7%
Atletico Nacional has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Atletico NacionalWDWDD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Santa FeDWWDL
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Atletico NacionalSanta Fe
64.8Attack51.4
71.3Defence65.7
72.2Form54.3
69.0Power58.2
1.48xG0.78