Atletico Nacionalvs
Independiente Medellin
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera A · 10/25/2026, 11:10:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico Nacional · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico Nacional 2-1 Independiente Medellin
Original prediction
Atletico Nacional
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 17:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 52.8% | 53.9% | 1.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 25.1% | 25.0% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 4.21 | 22.0% | 21.1% | -0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Atletico Nacional
Probability
53.9%
Model confidence
53.9%
Atletico Nacional has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80