Atletico Nacionalvs
Deportivo Pasto
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera A · 10/23/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico Nacional · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Atletico Nacional 2-0 Deportivo Pasto, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico Nacional 3-0 Deportivo Pasto
Original prediction
Atletico Nacional
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 12:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.21 | 76.6% | 59.4% | -17.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.63 | 16.5% | 23.2% | 6.7 pts |
| Away | 13.56 | 6.9% | 17.4% | 10.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.3 pts
Projected Score
Atletico Nacional 2–0 Deportivo Pasto
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Atletico Nacional
Probability
59.4%
Model confidence
59.4%
Atletico Nacional has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40