Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Biellese · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Valenzana 3-0 Biellese
Original prediction
Biellese
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 9 October 2026 at 14:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.31 | 27.2% | 36.1% | 8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 26.5% | 27.4% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 1.94 | 46.3% | 36.5% | -9.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Biellese
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Biellese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ValenzanaLLDWW
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
BielleseLWLWW
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ValenzanaBiellese
100.0Attack100.0
33.3Defence33.3
100.0Form100.0
80.3Power80.3
1.53xG1.31