Tochigi Cityvs
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
COMPLETEDJapan · J-League Cup · 9/29/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tochigi City 0-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Original prediction
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8.88 | 10.3% | 30.2% | 20.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.46 | 16.7% | 26.1% | 9.5 pts |
| Away | 1.25 | 73.1% | 43.6% | -29.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-29.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80