Yokohama F. Marinosvs
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
COMPLETEDJapan · J-League Cup · 10/28/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Yokohama F. Marinos 4-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Original prediction
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 11:34 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.98 | 23.1% | 34.1% | 11.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 24.7% | 28.2% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 1.76 | 52.3% | 37.7% | -14.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80