Sunderlandvs
Hull City
COMPLETEDEngland · League Cup · 9/8/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sunderland · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sunderland 1-0 Hull City
Original prediction
Sunderland
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 55.4% | 42.9% | -12.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 25.3% | 27.5% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 4.87 | 19.3% | 29.6% | 10.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.70 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Sunderland
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Sunderland has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 4 · GA 1 · avg 0.80/0.20