Staphorstvs
SC Genemuiden
COMPLETEDNetherlands · KNVB Beker · 9/22/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Staphorst · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Staphorst 2-3 SC Genemuiden
Original prediction
Staphorst
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.44 | 26.3% | 38.1% | 11.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 24.5% | 25.6% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 1.84 | 49.1% | 36.4% | -12.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Staphorst
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Staphorst has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00