Excelsior '31vs
ADO Den Haag
COMPLETEDNetherlands · KNVB Beker · 10/27/2026, 5:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ADO Den Haag · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Excelsior '31 1-1 ADO Den Haag
Original prediction
ADO Den Haag
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 13.11 | 7.0% | 36.3% | 29.3 pts |
| Draw | 7.17 | 12.8% | 22.4% | 9.6 pts |
| Away | 1.14 | 80.2% | 41.4% | -38.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 6.17 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-38.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
ADO Den Haag
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
ADO Den Haag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80