Sparta Rotterdamvs
Fortuna Sittard
COMPLETEDNetherlands · KNVB Beker · 10/28/2026, 5:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sparta Rotterdam · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sparta Rotterdam 2-2 Fortuna Sittard
Original prediction
Sparta Rotterdam
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 46.2% | 41.3% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.8% | 26.3% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.30 | 28.0% | 32.3% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.57 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Sparta Rotterdam
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
Sparta Rotterdam has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 15 · avg 1.60/3.00
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80