Hoekvs
Sparta Nijkerk
COMPLETEDNetherlands · KNVB Beker · 10/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hoek · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hoek 4-2 Sparta Nijkerk
Original prediction
Hoek
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 63.9% | 39.8% | -24.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.44 | 20.7% | 25.0% | 4.4 pts |
| Away | 5.95 | 15.4% | 35.2% | 19.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Hoek
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Hoek has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HoekLDLWL
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Sparta NijkerkWLLWW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
HoekSparta Nijkerk
50.0Attack83.3
50.0Defence83.3
50.0Form100.0
50.0Power91.7
1.64xG2.16