Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spezia · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spezia 3-0 Vado
Original prediction
Spezia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 57.3% | 47.9% | -9.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 24.7% | 26.9% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 5.00 | 18.0% | 25.3% | 7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Spezia
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
47.9%
Spezia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SpeziaWDWDD
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
VadoDWD
GF 3 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/0.33
BTTS 1/3O2.5 0/3
SpeziaVado
100.0Attack33.3
66.7Defence66.7
100.0Form33.3
88.7Power45.3
1.64xG0.99