Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Savoia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 12:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.37 | 37.9% | 43.8% | 5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.02 | 29.7% | 28.0% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.77 | 32.4% | 28.2% | -4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Savoia
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Savoia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SavoiaDLWDL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SorrentoDDLWL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
SavoiaSorrento
83.3Attack16.7
83.3Defence100.0
100.0Form66.7
89.7Power64.8
1.57xG0.93