Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santa Fe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Santa Fe 1-0 Jaguares, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Santa Fe 2-1 Jaguares
Original prediction
Santa Fe
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.34 | 69.2% | 70.3% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.50 | 20.7% | 19.7% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 9.21 | 10.1% | 9.9% | -0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Projected Score
Santa Fe 1–0 Jaguares
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Santa Fe
Probability
70.3%
Model confidence
70.3%
Santa Fe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Santa FeDDWWD
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
JaguaresWDLLL
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Santa FeJaguares
49.4Attack30.6
65.4Defence44.4
49.4Form30.6
55.6Power37.7
1.85xG0.55