Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santa Fe · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 2-0
Santa Fe are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Jaguares are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 0.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Santa Fe hold a 20.0-point power-rating edge (55.9 v 35.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 15.7% in the Primera A, while Santa Fe holds the strongest overall chance at 70% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 38% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Santa Fe
Probability
70.5%
Model confidence
15.7%
Santa Fe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 1 · GA 8 · avg 0.20/1.60