Santa Fevs
Fortaleza FC
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera A · 9/5/2026, 11:25:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santa Fe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Santa Fe 1-0 Fortaleza FC, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Santa Fe 2-2 Fortaleza FC
Original prediction
Santa Fe
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 57.4% | 58.7% | 1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 25.7% | 24.7% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 5.51 | 16.9% | 16.6% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.63 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Projected Score
Santa Fe 1–0 Fortaleza FC
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Santa Fe
Probability
58.7%
Model confidence
58.7%
Santa Fe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Santa FeWDDDD
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
Fortaleza FCLDLWL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Santa FeFortaleza FC
50.6Attack35.9
64.4Defence55.1
50.6Form35.9
56.2Power44.7
1.51xG0.68