Santa Fevs
Deportes Tolima
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera A · 9/12/2026, 1:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santa Fe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Santa Fe 1-0 Deportes Tolima
Original prediction
Santa Fe
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.37 | 39.1% | 38.1% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 30.3% | 28.7% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.03 | 30.6% | 33.1% | 2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Santa Fe
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Santa Fe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20