Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Salisbury · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Salisbury 1-1 Dover
Original prediction
Salisbury
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.49 | 61.3% | 50.9% | -10.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.42 | 20.6% | 25.7% | 5.0 pts |
| Away | 5.05 | 18.1% | 23.5% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.42 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Salisbury
Probability
50.9%
Model confidence
50.9%
Salisbury has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SalisburyWWWWW
GF 16 · GA 2 · avg 3.20/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
DoverWDWWW
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
SalisburyDover
60.0Attack56.7
76.7Defence46.7
60.0Form56.7
64.3Power55.3
2.11xG0.81