Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brentford · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Reading 1-2 Brentford
Original prediction
Brentford
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8.26 | 11.3% | 31.4% | 20.1 pts |
| Draw | 5.26 | 17.7% | 25.2% | 7.5 pts |
| Away | 1.31 | 71.0% | 43.4% | -27.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.31 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Brentford
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Brentford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ReadingWWDWD
GF 12 · GA 2 · avg 2.40/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BrentfordDDWWW
GF 18 · GA 3 · avg 3.60/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ReadingBrentford
66.7Attack100.0
83.3Defence66.7
66.7Form100.0
71.2Power88.7
1.54xG1.39