Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Reading · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (13%), 2-0 (13%), 4-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Reading 2-1 Barnsley
Original prediction
Reading
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 58.2% | 62.9% | 4.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.25 | 21.9% | 20.1% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 4.67 | 19.9% | 17.1% | -2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.59 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–013%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.4–010%
Predicted outcome
Reading
Probability
62.9%
Model confidence
62.9%
Reading has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ReadingWLLWD
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
BarnsleyLLLLL
GF 7 · GA 15 · avg 1.40/3.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
ReadingBarnsley
69.7Attack33.3
63.6Defence36.7
54.5Form26.7
61.2Power34.8
3.06xG0.62