Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leicester · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leicester 3-0 Wigan
Original prediction
Leicester
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 67.4% | 56.3% | -11.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.87 | 19.1% | 24.2% | 5.0 pts |
| Away | 6.92 | 13.4% | 19.5% | 6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Leicester
Probability
56.3%
Model confidence
56.3%
Leicester has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LeicesterLWWLL
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
WiganLLWLW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LeicesterWigan
51.5Attack24.2
48.5Defence48.5
45.5Form21.2
49.2Power33.7
1.79xG0.70