Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Everton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Preston are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Everton are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Everton hold a 31.2-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 76.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.4% in the League Cup, while Everton holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Everton
Probability
48.5%
Model confidence
12.4%
Everton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20