Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Everton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Preston 0-4 Everton
Original prediction
Everton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.92 | 15.9% | 26.2% | 10.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.34 | 21.7% | 25.8% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 1.51 | 62.3% | 48.0% | -14.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Everton
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
Everton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PrestonLLDLL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
EvertonWDWLW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
PrestonEverton
66.7Attack66.7
33.3Defence75.0
33.3Form83.3
45.3Power76.6
1.18xG1.72