Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Parma · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (8%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Parma 0-0 Udinese
Original prediction
Parma
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 00:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.75 | 34.6% | 37.7% | 3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 30.2% | 26.4% | -3.8 pts |
| Away | 2.70 | 35.2% | 35.8% | 0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.15 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Parma
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Parma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ParmaLLLWL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
UdineseLLLDL
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ParmaUdinese
20.8Attack37.5
37.5Defence25.0
16.7Form16.7
28.7Power30.0
1.35xG1.29