Once Caldasvs
Deportes Tolima
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera A · 9/16/2026, 11:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Once Caldas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Once Caldas 1-0 Deportes Tolima
Original prediction
Once Caldas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 41.9% | 37.6% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 29.7% | 28.0% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.27 | 28.4% | 34.4% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Once Caldas
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Once Caldas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20