Nagoya Grampusvs
Fagiano Okayama
COMPLETEDJapan · J-League Cup · 10/14/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nagoya Grampus · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nagoya Grampus 3-3 Fagiano Okayama
Original prediction
Nagoya Grampus
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 41.6% | 39.2% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.5% | 28.8% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.95 | 30.9% | 32.0% | 1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.31 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Nagoya Grampus
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Nagoya Grampus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20