Municipal Greciavs
Santa Cruz FC
COMPLETEDCosta-Rica · Liga de Ascenso · 10/4/2026, 1:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Municipal Grecia · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Municipal Grecia 1-0 Santa Cruz FC
Original prediction
Municipal Grecia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 56.8% | 53.9% | -2.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 23.7% | 24.7% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 4.60 | 19.5% | 21.4% | 1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Municipal Grecia
Probability
53.9%
Model confidence
53.9%
Municipal Grecia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20