Millonariosvs
Jaguares
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera A · 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Millonarios · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Millonarios 4-1 Jaguares
Original prediction
Millonarios
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.20 | 77.5% | 72.1% | -5.4 pts |
| Draw | 6.11 | 15.3% | 17.7% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 13.02 | 7.2% | 10.2% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Millonarios
Probability
72.1%
Model confidence
72.1%
Millonarios has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00