Matsumoto Yamagavs
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
COMPLETEDJapan · J-League Cup · 10/14/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Matsumoto Yamaga 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Original prediction
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 10.75 | 8.5% | 28.6% | 20.1 pts |
| Draw | 5.75 | 15.8% | 25.9% | 10.1 pts |
| Away | 1.21 | 75.7% | 45.5% | -30.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-30.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40
GF 15 · GA 1 · avg 3.00/0.20