Manchester Unitedvs
Brighton
COMPLETEDEngland · League Cup · 9/16/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Manchester United 2-3 Brighton
Original prediction
Manchester United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.79 | 52.0% | 44.9% | -7.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.97 | 23.5% | 26.6% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 3.81 | 24.5% | 28.6% | 4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Manchester United
Probability
44.9%
Model confidence
44.9%
Manchester United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00