Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Luton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Luton 2-1 Leicester
Original prediction
Luton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.20 | 42.2% | 41.0% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 24.8% | 25.1% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.82 | 33.0% | 33.9% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Luton
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Luton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LutonWLWDW
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LeicesterWWLLW
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
LutonLeicester
63.3Attack53.3
40.0Defence50.0
46.7Form50.0
51.2Power51.7
2.03xG1.76