Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Luton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Luton 2-1 Barnsley
Original prediction
Luton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.42 | 65.4% | 65.8% | 0.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.82 | 19.3% | 17.9% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 6.09 | 15.3% | 16.3% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–09%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Luton
Probability
65.8%
Model confidence
65.8%
Luton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LutonLWDWL
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BarnsleyLLLLD
GF 7 · GA 14 · avg 1.40/2.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
LutonBarnsley
63.0Attack33.3
37.0Defence37.0
40.7Form29.6
47.9Power35.9
2.50xG1.13