Kitakyushuvs
Nagoya Grampus
COMPLETEDJapan · J-League Cup · 9/29/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nagoya Grampus · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kitakyushu 1-3 Nagoya Grampus
Original prediction
Nagoya Grampus
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.58 | 12.0% | 27.6% | 15.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.97 | 18.3% | 28.0% | 9.7 pts |
| Away | 1.30 | 69.8% | 44.4% | -25.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.30 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Nagoya Grampus
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Nagoya Grampus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00