Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Junior · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Junior 1-1 Santa Fe
Original prediction
Junior
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 49.7% | 38.8% | -10.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.3% | 27.0% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 4.03 | 23.0% | 34.1% | 11.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.40 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Junior
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Junior has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JuniorLDLDL
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Santa FeDDDWW
GF 5 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
JuniorSanta Fe
48.3Attack49.4
58.6Defence65.4
51.7Form49.4
54.1Power55.6
1.07xG1.12