Jaguaresvs
Deportes Tolima
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera A · 10/11/2026, 9:05:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Deportes Tolima · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Jaguares 0-1 Deportes Tolima, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Jaguares 3-2 Deportes Tolima
Original prediction
Deportes Tolima
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 12:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.40 | 17.2% | 23.0% | 5.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 24.5% | 28.0% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 1.59 | 58.3% | 49.0% | -9.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.3 pts
Projected Score
Jaguares 0–1 Deportes Tolima
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Deportes Tolima
Probability
49.0%
Model confidence
49.0%
Deportes Tolima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80